Likely Markets

Likely Markets – Terms of Service

1. Introduction and Acceptance of Terms

These Terms of Service ("Terms") constitute a legally binding agreement between you ("User", "you") and Likely Markets ("Likely", "we", "us", "the Platform"), governing your access to and use of the Likely Markets prediction platform, accessible via the Telegram Mini App and the website likely.markets.

BY ACCESSING OR USING LIKELY MARKETS IN ANY WAY, YOU CONFIRM THAT YOU HAVE READ, UNDERSTOOD, AND AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THESE TERMS IN THEIR ENTIRETY. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE, YOU MUST NOT USE THE PLATFORM.

These Terms were last updated on March 12, 2026. We reserve the right to modify these Terms at any time. Continued use of the Platform after any modification constitutes acceptance of the updated Terms.

2. Nature of the Platform — Skill-Based Prediction Game

Likely Markets is a skill-based prediction game platform. It is NOT a gambling service, casino, lottery, sports betting operator, financial exchange, derivatives platform, or securities broker.

The Platform operates as follows:

  • Users participate in prediction markets by forecasting the outcomes of real-world events.
  • Success on the Platform depends primarily on a User's knowledge, research, analytical ability, and judgment — not on chance.
  • The pricing mechanism rewards participants who correctly identify mispriced probabilities and make accurate predictions.
  • All market activity occurs within an internal ledger system using platform credits.
  • USDT (on the TON blockchain) serves exclusively as the deposit and withdrawal mechanism — it is not the instrument being traded on the Platform.

By using the Platform, you acknowledge and agree that Likely Markets is a skill-based game and not a form of gambling, wagering, or financial instrument trading under any applicable law.

3. Eligibility and User Responsibilities

3.1 Age Requirement

You must be at least 18 years of age to use Likely Markets. By using the Platform, you represent and warrant that you are 18 years of age or older. We reserve the right to terminate any account we reasonably believe belongs to a person under 18.

3.2 Jurisdiction Self-Certification

Likely Markets does not restrict access based on geographic location. However, prediction markets, skill games, and cryptocurrency transactions may be restricted or prohibited in certain jurisdictions.

BY USING THE PLATFORM, YOU REPRESENT, WARRANT, AND CERTIFY THAT:

  • You have independently verified that your use of Likely Markets is lawful in your jurisdiction;
  • You are not located in a jurisdiction where the use of this Platform is prohibited by applicable law;
  • You are solely responsible for compliance with all laws applicable to you, including tax obligations;
  • Likely Markets bears no responsibility for your use of the Platform in violation of local law.

3.3 Account Conduct

You agree to:

  • Provide accurate information when registering or creating markets;
  • Not attempt to manipulate, exploit, or abuse the Platform's pricing mechanics;
  • Not use automated bots, scripts, or tools to gain unfair advantages;
  • Not engage in market manipulation, wash trading, or collusion;
  • Maintain the security of your Telegram account used to access the Platform.

4. Platform Credits, Deposits, and Withdrawals

4.1 Platform Credits

When you deposit USDT into the Platform, your funds are converted into platform credits ("Credits") at a 1:1 ratio with USDT. Credits are internal units of account used solely within the Likely Markets platform. Credits are not a cryptocurrency, security, financial instrument, or legal tender.

4.2 Deposits

Deposits are made in USDT on the TON blockchain. Once deposited, USDT is held in a secure vault. There is no minimum deposit requirement at this time. Deposits are credited to your account upon blockchain confirmation.

4.3 Withdrawals

You may withdraw your available Credit balance as USDT at any time, subject to the following:

  • Minimum withdrawal amount: $5.00 USD equivalent;
  • A flat withdrawal processing fee of $0.50 USD equivalent is deducted from each withdrawal;
  • Withdrawals are processed to your connected TON wallet address;
  • Processing times depend on TON blockchain confirmation speeds;
  • We reserve the right to delay or review withdrawals suspected of being related to fraudulent activity.

4.4 No Interest or Returns

Credits held in your account do not accrue interest. The Platform does not guarantee any return on Credits. Participation in prediction markets may result in partial or total loss of Credits.

5. Fees

The following fees apply to Platform activity:

  • Platform Buy Fee: 0.5% of the buy order amount, deducted automatically from each buy order. This fee is fixed and non-negotiable.
  • Creator Fee: Between 0% and 2% of the buy order amount, set at the discretion of the individual Market Creator. This fee is disclosed on each market page prior to participation.
  • Withdrawal Fee: A flat fee of $0.50 USD equivalent per withdrawal, deducted from the withdrawal amount.
  • Creator Bond: A refundable deposit of $10.00 USD equivalent required to create a market. This bond is returned upon fair settlement and forfeited upon proven misconduct.

All fees are transparently disclosed before any transaction is completed. We reserve the right to modify the Platform fee (0.5%) upon 14 days' notice to users.

6. Prediction Markets — How They Work

6.1 Market Creation

Any registered User may apply to become a Market Creator within the Platform. Market Creators may create prediction markets subject to the Market Creation Guidelines, which are incorporated into these Terms by reference.

6.2 Participation

Users may purchase positions in any active market. The price of each position is determined algorithmically by the Platform's pricing mechanism, which uses volatility parameters, liquidity floors, and seed values to ensure price stability and fairness.

6.3 Settlement

Upon the occurrence of the real-world event that a market is based on, the Market Creator is responsible for resolving the market by selecting the correct outcome. Settlement is parimutuel: the total USDT in all pools is distributed proportionally to holders of winning positions, based on their share of total winning units issued.

6.4 Creator Participation

Market Creators are permitted to participate as users in markets they have created. By participating in their own markets, Creators represent that they will resolve such markets honestly and in accordance with actual real-world outcomes. Dishonest resolution is subject to the Dispute and Enforcement System described in Section 8.

7. Market Creators — Key Obligations

By creating a market on Likely Markets, you additionally agree to the Likely Markets Creator Agreement, which governs:

  • Your obligations regarding fair and timely market resolution;
  • The Creator Bond ($10.00) and conditions for its return or forfeiture;
  • The Strike System (3 strikes resulting in permanent ban);
  • Your liability for incorrect or fraudulent market resolution;
  • Your earnings entitlement and fee configuration rights.

The Creator Agreement is a separate document incorporated into these Terms by reference. Acceptance of these Terms constitutes acceptance of the Creator Agreement for any User who creates a market.

8. Dispute and Enforcement System

8.1 Dispute Window

Following a market resolution by a Creator, a dispute window of 2 (two) hours is open during which any User who participated in that market may file a formal dispute.

8.2 Dispute Bond

To file a dispute, the disputing User must post a Dispute Bond that equals to $2.00.

This bond is held pending resolution of the dispute.

8.3 Dispute Outcomes

If the dispute is upheld (Creator is found to have resolved dishonestly): The Creator's $10.00 Bond is forfeited to the successful Disputer; the Creator receives 1 Strike; the Creator's earned fees from the disputed market are redirected to the Platform; the market is re-resolved correctly.

If the dispute is rejected (Creator's resolution is confirmed correct): The Disputer's Dispute Bond is forfeited; the market resolution stands.

8.4 Strike System

Creators accumulate Strikes for proven dishonest resolutions. Upon receiving 3 Strikes, the Creator's account is permanently banned from creating markets. Likely Markets reserves the right to ban accounts with fewer than 3 Strikes in cases of egregious misconduct.

8.5 Final Arbiter

Likely Markets Platform Operations serves as the final arbiter for all escalated disputes. Our decision on all dispute outcomes is final and binding. We commit to reviewing all escalated disputes within 48 hours.

9. Risk Disclosure

PARTICIPATION IN PREDICTION MARKETS INVOLVES FINANCIAL RISK. PLEASE READ THIS SECTION CAREFULLY.

By using the Platform, you acknowledge and accept the following risks:

  • You may lose some or all of the Credits you commit to a market;
  • Past performance of any Creator, market type, or prediction strategy is not indicative of future results;
  • Market prices are algorithmically determined and may not reflect your assessment of true probabilities;
  • The Platform's pricing mechanics, including the volatility parameter and liquidity floor, may result in prices that differ from your expectations;
  • Cryptocurrency (USDT/TON) values may fluctuate during the period between deposit and withdrawal;
  • Blockchain network congestion may delay deposits or withdrawals;
  • Smart contract vulnerabilities, while mitigated, cannot be entirely eliminated;
  • The Platform may be subject to regulatory changes that affect its availability in your jurisdiction;
  • The Platform may suspend or terminate operations.

DO NOT participate with funds you cannot afford to lose. Likely Markets is not a financial advisor and nothing on the Platform constitutes financial advice.

10. Intellectual Property

All content, software, algorithms, branding, design, and materials on the Platform are the intellectual property of Likely Markets and are protected by applicable intellectual property laws. You are granted a limited, non-exclusive, non-transferable licence to use the Platform solely for its intended purpose. You may not copy, reproduce, reverse-engineer, or create derivative works from any part of the Platform.

11. Prohibited Conduct

The following conduct is strictly prohibited and may result in immediate account termination and forfeiture of all Credits:

  • Creating markets based on prohibited topics (see Market Creation Guidelines);
  • Deliberately resolving markets incorrectly;
  • Using multiple accounts to circumvent restrictions or manipulate markets;
  • Attempting to exploit or hack the Platform's technical systems;
  • Money laundering or use of the Platform for any illegal financial activity;
  • Impersonating other users or Likely Markets staff;
  • Creating markets involving illegal activities, minors, or private individuals without consent;
  • Any conduct designed to harm other users or the integrity of the Platform.

12. Limitation of Liability and Disclaimers

TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW, LIKELY MARKETS, ITS OPERATORS, EMPLOYEES, AND AFFILIATES SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES ARISING FROM YOUR USE OF OR INABILITY TO USE THE PLATFORM.

This includes but is not limited to:

  • Loss of Credits, profits, or market winnings;
  • Losses arising from incorrect market resolution by Creators;
  • Losses due to blockchain network failures or delays;
  • Losses due to cryptocurrency value fluctuations;
  • Data loss, security breaches, or unauthorized account access;
  • Platform downtime or technical failures.

THE PLATFORM IS PROVIDED "AS IS" AND "AS AVAILABLE" WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED. WE DO NOT WARRANT THAT THE PLATFORM WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED, ERROR-FREE, OR FREE OF HARMFUL COMPONENTS.

13. Privacy

Your use of the Platform is also governed by our Privacy Policy, which is incorporated into these Terms by reference. By using the Platform, you consent to the collection and use of your information as described in the Privacy Policy. The Privacy Policy is available at likely.markets/legal/privacy.

14. Termination

We reserve the right to suspend or terminate your access to the Platform at any time, with or without notice, for any reason including violation of these Terms. Upon termination, any available Credits in your account will remain withdrawable for a period of 30 days, after which they may be forfeited if not withdrawn.

You may terminate your account at any time by ceasing use of the Platform and withdrawing all available Credits.

15. Governing Law and Dispute Resolution

These Terms shall be governed by and construed in accordance with generally accepted principles of international commercial law. Any disputes arising from these Terms or your use of the Platform shall first be attempted to be resolved through good-faith negotiation. If resolution cannot be reached, disputes shall be submitted to binding arbitration.

You agree that any dispute resolution proceedings will be conducted on an individual basis and not as a class action.

16. General Provisions

  • Entire Agreement: These Terms, together with the Privacy Policy, Creator Agreement (where applicable), and Market Creation Guidelines, constitute the entire agreement between you and Likely Markets.
  • Severability: If any provision of these Terms is found to be unenforceable, the remaining provisions shall remain in full force and effect.
  • Waiver: Failure to enforce any provision of these Terms shall not constitute a waiver of our right to enforce it in the future.
  • Assignment: You may not assign your rights under these Terms. We may assign our rights without restriction.
  • Language: These Terms are written in English. In the event of any conflict between an English version and a translated version, the English version shall prevail.

These Terms were last updated on March 12, 2026. Continued use of the Platform after any modification constitutes acceptance of the updated Terms.

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