Likely Markets — Risk Disclosure Statement

If the outcome you predicted does not occur, you will lose all Credits invested in that market. There is no partial payout for incorrect predictions. You should never invest more than you are prepared to lose entirely.

Past performance of any Creator, market type, prediction strategy, or outcome category is not indicative of future results. Nothing on the Platform constitutes a promise or guarantee of any return. The Platform makes no representations about the likelihood of any outcome.

The price of positions is determined algorithmically using the Platform's pricing mechanics, including the Hidden Seed (S), Dynamic Floor (F), and Volatility Level (V) parameters. Prices may not reflect your own assessment of the true probability of an outcome. You may purchase a position at a price you later consider unfavourable.

Large buy orders will move the market price. The Platform uses an average price calculation to protect buyers, but significant slippage may still occur on large orders in low-liquidity markets. You may pay more per unit than the price displayed at the start of your transaction.

In markets with low total pool size, the Reality Check mechanism caps your sell payout at 98% of the real pool for the option you are selling. In very thin markets, your ability to exit a position at a favourable price may be limited.

Each market is resolved by a human Market Creator. While the Platform's bond and dispute system incentivises honest resolution, there is a risk that a Creator resolves a market incorrectly or dishonestly. In such cases, the dispute system provides recourse, but outcomes cannot be guaranteed until the dispute window closes. You participate in each market subject to the integrity of its Creator.

Committing a large portion of your platform balance to a single market increases your exposure to that market's outcome and its Creator's honesty. We recommend distributing your activity across multiple markets and Creators.

Deposits and withdrawals are made in USDT (Tether) on the TON blockchain. While USDT is a stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar, its peg is maintained by a third party (Tether Limited) and is not guaranteed by Likely Markets. USDT may lose its peg, resulting in the real-world value of your deposits or withdrawals differing from expectations.

All deposits and withdrawals are processed on the TON blockchain. Network congestion, technical failures, hard forks, or protocol changes may delay or prevent transactions. Likely Markets has no control over the TON blockchain and is not liable for delays or failures caused by network conditions.

Cryptocurrency transactions on the TON blockchain are irreversible once confirmed. If you send USDT to an incorrect wallet address, or if a transaction is made in error, the funds cannot be recovered by Likely Markets. Always verify wallet addresses before initiating any transaction.

User funds are held in a vault system. While reasonable security measures are in place, no technology is entirely free of vulnerability. There is a risk that technical exploits, bugs, or security breaches could result in loss of funds. Likely Markets takes reasonable precautions but cannot guarantee absolute security.

Regulation of cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and blockchain-based platforms is evolving rapidly across all jurisdictions. Future regulatory actions may affect the availability of USDT, the TON blockchain, or the Platform itself. You should monitor regulatory developments in your jurisdiction.

Likely Markets is provided on an "as is" and "as available" basis. The Platform may experience downtime, technical failures, or interruptions that prevent you from accessing your account, placing orders, or withdrawing funds. We do not guarantee uninterrupted access.

Likely Markets reserves the right to modify, suspend, or permanently close the Platform at any time. In the event of closure, reasonable efforts will be made to allow Users to withdraw their available balances, but this cannot be guaranteed in all circumstances, including regulatory-forced closure.

The primary interface for Likely Markets is a Telegram Mini App. The Platform's availability is therefore partly dependent on Telegram's continued operation, policies, and terms of service. Changes to Telegram's platform or policies could affect your access to Likely Markets.

Your Likely Markets account is accessed through your Telegram account. If your Telegram account is compromised, your Likely Markets account and funds may also be at risk. You are responsible for the security of your Telegram account. Likely Markets cannot recover funds lost due to unauthorised account access.

While the dispute system provides a mechanism to challenge incorrect resolutions, dispute outcomes are determined by the Platform's operations team and are final. There is no guarantee that every dispute will be resolved in your favour, even if you believe the original resolution was incorrect.

The legality of prediction markets, skill games, and cryptocurrency transactions varies significantly between jurisdictions. You are solely responsible for determining whether your use of Likely Markets is lawful where you are located. Likely Markets does not provide legal advice and makes no representations about the legality of the Platform in your jurisdiction.

Winnings, earnings, and cryptocurrency transactions may be subject to taxation in your jurisdiction. You are solely responsible for determining and fulfilling your tax obligations. Likely Markets does not withhold taxes and does not provide tax advice.

Regulatory authorities in various jurisdictions may take action against prediction market platforms, cryptocurrency services, or related activities. Such action could result in the Platform being required to restrict access, freeze funds, or cease operations in certain jurisdictions.