Likely Markets — Market Creation Guidelines

Every market created on Likely Markets must meet all four of the following requirements:

GOOD EXAMPLES — These markets are clear, objective, verifiable, and time-bound.

• "Will Manchester United win their match against Arsenal on 15 April 2026?"
• "Will Bitcoin close above $100,000 on 31 December 2026?"
• "Who will win the 2026 French Open Men's Singles title?"
• "Will the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates at their May 2026 meeting?"
• "Will [Film Title] gross over $100M in its opening weekend?"
• "Which team will win the 2026 NBA Championship?"

BAD EXAMPLES — These markets are ambiguous, unverifiable, or violate these Guidelines.

• "Will crypto go up this month?" — Too vague. Which crypto? What counts as 'up'?
• "Is [public figure] a good leader?" — Opinion-based. No objective answer.
• "Will I get a promotion this year?" — Private event, unverifiable.
• "Will [named private individual] get divorced?" — Private individual, privacy violation.
• "Will [team] win eventually?" — No defined timeframe.

All professional and amateur sports events with scheduled fixtures and official results.

• Match outcomes (win/draw/loss);
• Tournament and championship winners;
• Player and team performance milestones (goals scored, points achieved, records broken);
• Qualifying and promotion/relegation outcomes;
• Award winners (MVP, Golden Boot, etc.).

On-chain and market data events with objective, verifiable outcomes.

• Price level predictions (e.g. Bitcoin above/below $X on date Y);
• Market capitalisation milestones;
• Protocol upgrade and deployment events;
• On-chain metrics (total value locked, transaction volume milestones);
• Token listing and delisting events on major exchanges.

Official electoral and legislative outcomes based on certified public results.

• Election winners (presidential, parliamentary, local);
• Referendum and ballot initiative outcomes;
• Legislative passage or rejection of publicly announced bills;
• Official appointment outcomes (central bank governors, cabinet positions).

Note on Elections: Markets must be based on official certified results only. Markets based on exit polls or early projections carry resolution ambiguity — define your resolution criteria carefully.

Awards, competitions, and entertainment industry events with official announced results.

• Award show winners (Oscars, Grammys, BAFTAs, etc.);
• Box office performance milestones;
• Streaming platform viewership records (where officially published);
• Reality TV competition outcomes;
• Music chart positions (official chart results).

Publicly announced financial and economic data releases.

• Central bank interest rate decisions;
• Official economic data releases (GDP, inflation, employment figures);
• Corporate earnings results (above/below analyst consensus);
• Stock market index levels at defined dates;
• IPO pricing outcomes.

Official announcements, releases, and publicly verifiable technical events.

• Product launch and release date outcomes;
• Regulatory approval decisions (FDA, FCC, etc.);
• Official space mission outcomes;
• Publicly announced partnership and acquisition deals.

Major global events with verifiable, officially announced outcomes.

• International organisation decisions (UN resolutions, WHO declarations);
• Official diplomatic agreements and treaty outcomes;
• Natural disaster event classification outcomes (official meteorological/geological designations);
• International competition results (Olympics, World Cups, etc.).

Creator-defined markets for specific community topics.

Creators may create custom markets for their specific community topics provided they meet the four requirements in Section 2.1 and do not fall into any prohibited category in Section 4.

You may not create markets about the personal lives, private decisions, health, or relationships of private individuals who have not voluntarily entered public life. This includes:

• Relationship outcomes (marriages, divorces, breakups) of private individuals;
• Health, illness, or medical outcomes of private individuals;
• Personal financial situations of private individuals;
• Private employment decisions (hiring, firing) not publicly announced.

Note: Public figures (politicians, celebrities, professional athletes) may be the subject of markets where the topic directly relates to their public role. Markets about their private lives remain prohibited.

You may not create markets that predict or speculate on:

• The death of any specific named individual, whether public or private;
• Serious injury or health deterioration of specific individuals;
• Mass casualty events or terrorist attacks;
• Any outcome framed around harm to a person or group.

You may not create any market that involves a person under 18 years of age in any capacity, including:

• Performance outcomes of minor athletes in youth competitions;
• Academic or personal outcomes of minors;
• Any market where a minor is the named subject.

You may not create a market where you have the ability to influence the outcome or possess material non-public information about the outcome. This constitutes market manipulation and fraud. Examples:

• A market about your own company's unannounced product launch;
• A market about a deal you are personally involved in negotiating;
• A market about an event you have been told the outcome of in advance.

Markets designed to incite hatred, violence, or discrimination against any group based on race, religion, nationality, gender, sexual orientation, or other protected characteristics are strictly prohibited.

• Ongoing criminal trials where a market could constitute contempt of court or jury tampering in applicable jurisdictions;
• Markets that would constitute illegal activity in the creator's or platform's jurisdiction;
• Markets designed to facilitate money laundering or circumvent financial regulations;
• Markets involving sanctioned individuals, entities, or jurisdictions.

• Markets with no objective, publicly verifiable outcome;
• Markets based entirely on personal opinion or aesthetic judgment;
• Markets where the Creator is the sole arbiter of the outcome with no external verification possible.

Your resolution criteria must be clearly defined at the time of market creation. You may not change or reinterpret your resolution criteria after the market opens for participation. If participants cannot determine how you will resolve the market from the information provided at creation, your market does not meet our standards.

Resolution must be based on one or more of the following accepted source types:

• Official competition or governing body results (UEFA, FIFA, NBA, etc.);
• Official government announcements or certified electoral results;
• Major reputable news organisations (minimum 2 independent sources confirming the same outcome);
• Official company announcements (press releases, SEC/regulatory filings);
• On-chain data from public blockchain explorers;
• Official central bank or regulatory body announcements;
• Official scientific or meteorological body classifications.

If the real-world outcome is genuinely disputed, ambiguous, or officially inconclusive at the time of required resolution, you must:

• Notify the Platform at legal@likely.markets immediately;
• Wait for official clarification before resolving;
• If no official resolution is expected within a reasonable time, apply for a no-contest cancellation with full refunds to all participants.

A no-contest resolution (full refunds to all participants) is appropriate when:

• The event is cancelled, postponed indefinitely, or fails to occur;
• The outcome is officially declared void (e.g. a match abandoned, an election annulled);
• The resolution criteria have become impossible to evaluate due to circumstances beyond anyone's control.

• Markets must be written in clear, understandable language;
• The market question must be a single, focused proposition — not multiple questions bundled together;
• Resolution criteria must be written in plain language, not legal or technical jargon that participants cannot reasonably understand;
• Markets may be written in any language, provided the resolution criteria are equally clear.

• All factual information in your market description must be accurate at the time of creation;
• You must not misrepresent the nature, status, or likelihood of the underlying event;
• If you discover an error in your market after launch, contact legal@likely.markets immediately.

• Markets must have a resolution date that is realistic given the underlying event;
• You must resolve your market within 24 hours of the event conclusion;
• Do not create markets for events so far in the future that liquidity and user interest cannot be sustained.