Likely Markets — Dispute Resolution Policy

Soft community flag. No bond required. Market continues normally. Platform may review at its discretion.

$2.00 bond + evidence link required. Market immediately pauses. Platform conducts full investigation using Creator's original market info, Disputer's evidence, and independent research.

A report is a soft community flag signalling to Platform Operations that a User believes something may be wrong with a market's resolution. Reports are low-friction by design — they require no bond and cause no disruption to the market.

• Any participant in the market may file a report during the 2-hour post-resolution window;
• No bond or deposit is required;
• The User selects a reason from the options in the Platform interface and may optionally include a brief note;
• The market continues operating normally — trading is not paused.

• Reports are logged and reviewed by Platform Operations as part of routine market monitoring;
• A volume of reports on the same market may trigger a proactive Platform review;
• Reports alone do not pause a market, reverse a resolution, or affect payouts;
• Reports are confidential — the Creator is not notified of individual reports;
• Filing a report does not prevent a User from also filing a formal dispute.

Reports are not a substitute for disputes. If you have strong evidence that a resolution is wrong and want the market paused and formally investigated, you must file a Tier 2 Dispute. A report alone will not achieve this.

A formal dispute is a serious challenge to a market resolution that triggers an immediate market pause and a full Platform investigation. Disputes require a $2.00 bond and a publicly accessible evidence link, ensuring only genuine good-faith challenges are filed.

A dispute may NOT be filed on the basis of personal dissatisfaction with the outcome, disbelief that the outcome was likely, or disappointment with your position's performance. The dispute system exists to correct factual errors and fraud only.

• You must have participated in the market (held a position at any point during the market's active period);
• The 2-hour post-resolution window must still be open;
• You must have at least $2.00 in platform Credits available;
• You must have a valid publicly accessible evidence link to submit.

Once submitted, a dispute cannot be withdrawn. The $2.00 bond is committed regardless of outcome. Ensure your evidence link clearly supports your claim before filing.

The moment a valid dispute is submitted, the market status changes to "Disputed" and the market is fully and immediately paused. This is automatic.

While a market is in "Disputed" status, everything is frozen:

• No new buy orders may be placed;
• No sell orders may be executed — existing position holders cannot exit their positions;
• All positions are locked in place until the investigation concludes;
• No payouts are processed — settlement is fully suspended;
• The Creator cannot modify or re-resolve the market;
• The market remains visible to all users with its "Disputed" status clearly displayed.

The full freeze exists to protect all participants equally. Without it, users who learn of a dispute first could exit positions before others, creating an unfair advantage. By locking all positions, the outcome of the investigation applies equally to every participant regardless of when they became aware of the dispute.

The market pause is not a judgment against the Creator. It is a neutral protective measure that applies automatically whenever a formal dispute is filed. The Creator is presumed to have resolved honestly until the investigation concludes.

The market remains paused until Platform Operations issues its decision. Standard disputes are resolved within 48 hours. All participants are notified immediately when the decision is made.

Every dispute investigation is conducted using exactly three sources of information. The Creator has no active role in the dispute process — they are notified that a dispute has been filed, but they do not submit responses or additional evidence. Their representation is entirely the information they provided when creating the market.

The Creator cannot add to, clarify, or defend their resolution after the market is created. This is intentional. It incentivises Creators to write precise, unambiguous resolution criteria from day one — because those criteria are their only defense in any future dispute.

Platform Operations applies the resolution criteria strictly as written at market creation. This means:

• The Creator's intended meaning is not relevant — only the written criteria matter;
• If the written criteria clearly map to one outcome, that outcome is correct regardless of what the Creator believed they meant;
• If the written criteria are genuinely ambiguous and cannot be objectively applied, a no-contest determination may be issued with full refunds.

When evaluating evidence, Platform Operations applies the following hierarchy:

• Primary: Official governing body results, certified government announcements, official company regulatory filings;
• Secondary: Reports from two or more major independent news organisations confirming the same outcome;
• Tertiary: On-chain data from public blockchain explorers, official statistical releases;
• Supporting: Additional corroborating public sources.

Evidence must be publicly accessible at the time of investigation. Unverifiable screenshots and single-source claims without corroboration carry significantly less weight.

Where the real-world outcome is genuinely ambiguous, officially disputed, or where the written resolution criteria cannot be objectively applied to the outcome, Platform Operations issues a no-contest determination resulting in full refunds to all participants. No Strikes are issued in a no-contest outcome.

• Standard disputes: resolved within 48 hours of filing;
• Complex disputes requiring extensive research: resolved within 7 days;
• All parties notified via Telegram immediately upon decision.

A Strike is issued to a Creator's account each time a dispute against their resolution is upheld. Strikes accumulate permanently and never expire.

The following conduct warrants immediate permanent ban without the strike progression:

• Coordinated fraud involving multiple accounts or external parties;
• Deliberate large-scale market manipulation designed to harm participants;
• Illegal activity conducted through or in connection with a market;
• Any conduct the Platform deems to pose serious risk to participants or Platform integrity.

Both Creators and Disputers may appeal a dispute decision within 7 days of the decision being issued. Appeals are reviewed by senior Platform Operations staff not involved in the original investigation.

• New evidence has emerged that was not available during the original investigation and would materially affect the outcome;
• A clear procedural error was made during the investigation;
• The decision is demonstrably inconsistent with the written resolution criteria and publicly available evidence.

Appeals based solely on dissatisfaction with the outcome, without new evidence or identified procedural error, will not be accepted.

• Email legal@likely.markets with subject line: "DISPUTE APPEAL — [Market Name]";
• Include your Telegram username, the market in question, and your specific grounds;
• Attach any new evidence;
• Appeals reviewed within 7 days. Decisions are final and binding.

Platform Operations has no financial interest in any dispute outcome beyond its standard platform fee.

Investigations are based entirely on written criteria and verifiable evidence — not arguments, reputation, or the size of the market.

All dispute decisions include a written explanation of the reasoning and evidence considered. Both parties receive the full decision.

The same evidence standards apply to every dispute regardless of market size or Creator reputation.

Standard disputes resolved within 48 hours. All parties notified immediately upon decision.

Individual dispute details are not publicly disclosed without consent of both parties, except where required by law.