Likely Markets – Creator Agreement

Any registered Likely Markets User may apply to become a Creator, provided they:

• Are at least 18 years of age;
• Have a valid and active Telegram account in good standing;
• Have not been previously banned from the Platform as a Creator;
• Agree to the terms of this Agreement in full;
• Are able to post the required Creator Bond (Section 4) for each market created.

Creator applications are submitted through the Likely Markets Telegram Mini App. Likely Markets reserves the right to approve or reject any application at its sole discretion, without obligation to provide a reason for rejection.

As a Creator, you have the right to:

• Create prediction markets on topics of your choosing, subject to the Market Creation Guidelines;
• Set the duration and resolution criteria for your markets;
• Configure your Creator Fee between 0% and 2% per buy order;
• Set the Volatility Level (V parameter) for your markets between 1 and 10;
• Promote your markets through your own channels and communities;
• Participate as a regular User in markets you have created.

You have full control over your Creator Fee, which can be set anywhere between 0% and 2% of each buy order. This fee is your primary source of earnings on the Platform.

Fee strategy considerations:

• Lower fees attract higher volume — ideal for Creators with large audiences;
• Higher fees generate more per trade — sustainable with loyal, captive communities;
• Your fee is displayed transparently to all Users before they participate in your market;
• You may adjust your fee configuration for each new market you create.

You may set the Volatility Level (V) for each market between 1 and 10. This parameter controls the inertia of price movement — higher V means prices move more slowly and markets are more stable. Lower V means prices respond more dramatically to trading activity.

High V (7-10): Suitable for large, liquid markets. Protects against early price manipulation.

Medium V (4-6): Balanced markets. Recommended for most use cases.

Low V (1-3): Dynamic, volatile markets. Best for engaged communities who enjoy rapid price action.

Your Creator Fee is automatically collected on every buy order placed in your market and credited to your Platform account in real time. There is no delay, threshold, or approval required to earn your fees.

To create a market, you must post a Creator Bond of $10.00 USD equivalent in platform Credits. This bond is held by the Platform for the duration of the market and the dispute window following resolution.

Your Creator Bond will be returned to your account in full when:

• The market is resolved by you within the required timeframe;
• The 2-hour dispute window expires with no successful dispute filed against your resolution;
• Any dispute filed against your resolution is rejected (your resolution is confirmed correct).

Your Creator Bond will be forfeited in the following circumstances:

• A dispute is filed and upheld — meaning you are found to have resolved the market dishonestly or incorrectly. In this case, your $10.00 Bond is awarded to the successful Disputer;
• You fail to resolve a market within 24 hours of the event conclusion without notifying the Platform;
• Your account is terminated for misconduct before market resolution.

The $10.00 bond applies per market created. If you are running multiple simultaneous markets, each requires its own separate bond. Bonds for different markets are independent and do not affect one another.

You are responsible for the quality and clarity of every market you create. Each market must:

• Have a clearly defined, unambiguous question or proposition;
• Have clearly defined resolution criteria that leave no room for interpretation;
• Be based on a real-world event with a verifiable, objective outcome;
• Have a realistic and defined resolution timeframe;
• Comply with the Market Creation Guidelines at all times.

Your most critical obligation as a Creator is to resolve markets honestly, accurately, and in accordance with real-world outcomes. This is non-negotiable.

When resolving a market, you must:

• Select the outcome that actually occurred in the real world, based on verifiable evidence;
• Resolve within 24 hours of the event conclusion;
• Not be influenced by your own position in the market when determining the outcome;
• Provide a resolution that is consistent with the market's stated resolution criteria.

You are permitted to hold positions in your own markets. However, holding a position does not entitle you to resolve a market in your favour contrary to the actual outcome. Doing so constitutes fraud and will result in immediate sanctions.

You must resolve your market within 24 hours of the real-world event conclusion. If you are unable to resolve within this timeframe, you must notify the Platform at legal@likely.markets. Failure to resolve without notice may result in:

• Forced resolution by the Platform;
• Forfeiture of your Creator Bond;
• Issuance of a Strike against your account.

You are encouraged to communicate with your market participants regarding:

• Any delays in event occurrence or resolution;
• Ambiguous outcomes that require clarification;
• Market cancellations (see Section 6).

When you hold a position in your own market, you have a potential conflict of interest. While participation is permitted, you must always prioritise honest resolution over personal financial gain. The Platform's dispute system exists specifically to detect and penalise dishonest resolution.

You may cancel a market before the event occurs in the following circumstances:

• The underlying event is cancelled, postponed indefinitely, or fails to occur;
• The market was created in error;
• The resolution criteria have become impossible to evaluate objectively.

To cancel a market, you must submit a cancellation request through the Platform. Upon approval:

• All participants receive a full refund of their invested Credits;
• Your Creator Bond is returned in full;
• No Creator Fees are retained from the cancelled market;
• No Strike is issued for a legitimate cancellation.

Repeated or pattern cancellations designed to avoid resolution obligations may be treated as misconduct and result in a Strike or account review.

Following your resolution of a market, a 2-hour dispute window opens during which any participant in that market may challenge your resolution by filing a formal dispute.

A Disputer must post a Dispute Bond to challenge your resolution:

Dispute Bond = $2.00

This bond ensures disputes are made in good faith and not frivolously.

When a dispute is filed, the Platform Operations team reviews:

• The market's stated resolution criteria;
• Publicly available evidence of the real-world outcome;
• Any evidence submitted by the Disputer;

If the Platform upholds the dispute (finds your resolution was dishonest or incorrect):

• Your $10.00 Creator Bond is forfeited and awarded to the successful Disputer;
• You receive 1 Strike on your account;
• Your Creator Fees earned from the disputed market are redirected to the Platform;
• The market is re-resolved with the correct outcome;
• All winning participants are paid based on the corrected outcome.

If the Platform rejects the dispute (confirms your resolution was correct):

• Your $10.00 Creator Bond is returned in full;
• The Disputer's bond is forfeited;
• Your resolution stands and payouts proceed normally;
• No Strike is issued against your account.

A Strike is issued to your Creator account when:

• A dispute is upheld against your market resolution;
• You are found to have created a market in violation of the Market Creation Guidelines;
• You engage in conduct determined by the Platform to be fraudulent or abusive.

• Strike 1: Formal warning. Bond forfeited for the disputed market. Creator fees from that market redirected to Platform.
• Strike 2: Final warning. All bonds forfeited for disputed market. 7-day suspension from creating new markets. Mandatory review.
• Strike 3: Permanent ban from the Creator role. Account may continue as a regular User only.

Likely Markets reserves the right to immediately and permanently ban a Creator without the 3-strike process in cases of:

• Proven deliberate fraud affecting a large number of participants;
• Market manipulation in coordination with other accounts;
• Illegal activity conducted through or in connection with a market;
• Any conduct the Platform deems to pose a serious risk to Users or the Platform's integrity.

You may appeal any Strike or ban decision by contacting legal@likely.markets within 7 days of the decision. Appeals are reviewed by senior Platform Operations staff. Appeal decisions are final.

You are entitled to earn a Creator Fee on every buy order placed in your markets, at the rate you configured at market creation. This right is subject to:

• The market being resolved honestly and without a successful dispute;
• Your account remaining in good standing;
• Compliance with this Agreement throughout the market lifecycle.

Your Creator Fee is calculated as a percentage of the net buy order amount after the Platform's 0.5% fee is applied. Fees are credited to your Platform account automatically and in real time.

Your Creator Fees for a specific market are forfeited and redirected to the Platform if:

• A dispute against that market is upheld;
• The market is found to have violated the Market Creation Guidelines;
• The market is cancelled due to Creator misconduct.

Earned fees are credited as platform Credits and may be withdrawn as USDT (TON chain) at any time, subject to:

• Minimum withdrawal amount of $5.00 USD equivalent;
• A flat withdrawal fee of $0.50 USD equivalent per withdrawal;
• Your account not being under active investigation or suspension.

You are solely responsible for determining and fulfilling any tax obligations arising from your earnings as a Creator. Likely Markets does not withhold taxes and does not provide tax advice. We recommend consulting a qualified tax professional.

• Sports events and competitions;
• Political elections and public policy outcomes;
• Cryptocurrency price levels and on-chain events;
• Entertainment, awards, and cultural events;
• Financial market events (index levels, earnings results);
• Technology and product release events;
• Any other real-world event with a verifiable, objective outcome.

The following market topics are strictly prohibited:

• Events involving minors in any capacity;
• Outcomes of ongoing criminal proceedings where prediction could constitute jury tampering;
• Markets designed to facilitate money laundering or illegal financial activity;
• Any topic prohibited by applicable law in your jurisdiction or the Platform's operating jurisdiction;
• Demeaning, harassing, or defamatory markets targeting specific private individuals.

You are solely responsible for ensuring that each market you create is legal in your jurisdiction and does not violate applicable law. Likely Markets does not provide legal advice regarding market topics.

You acknowledge and accept that you are personally liable for:

• Any losses suffered by Users as a direct result of your dishonest or negligent market resolution;
• Any legal consequences arising from markets you create that violate applicable law;
• Any claims arising from content you post on the Platform.

You agree to indemnify, defend, and hold harmless Likely Markets and its operators from any claims, damages, losses, liabilities, costs, and expenses (including legal fees) arising from your use of the Creator role, your markets, your content, or your breach of this Agreement.

Likely Markets is not liable for losses suffered by Users in your markets, except in cases where the Platform itself has failed to operate correctly. The Platform's liability to you as a Creator is limited to the return of your Creator Bond in situations where it was incorrectly forfeited.

You may voluntarily relinquish your Creator status at any time. All active markets must be resolved or cancelled before termination. Any pending bonds will be returned upon resolution of outstanding markets.

Likely Markets may terminate your Creator status at any time for:

• Accumulation of 3 Strikes;
• Egregious misconduct warranting immediate ban (Section 8.3);
• Breach of this Agreement or the Terms of Service;
• Legal or regulatory requirements.

Upon termination of Creator status:

• You may no longer create new markets;
• Existing active markets must be resolved within 48 hours or will be forcibly resolved by the Platform;
• Earned fees already credited to your account remain withdrawable;
• Your regular User account remains active unless separately terminated.